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IDC: Global chip market will rise 4.6 percent in 2012
Semiconductor demand will further strengthen 2013 when the market rises 6.2 percent to $335 billion
July 24, 2012
The worldwide semiconductor industry will post steady growth through 2016 when the market reaches $380 billion.The worldwide semiconductor market will increase 4.6 percent to $315 billion in 2012, despite the European debt crisis and lower global GDP growth, according to researcher International Data Corporation (IDC).
IDC reported that chip revenue growth will continue in 2013 when the market will rise 6.2 percent to $335 billion, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 4.8 percent from 2011 to 2016.
Despite poor global economic conditions, demand for semiconductors remains strong from such applications as smart phones, media tablets and automotive electronics, noted IDC.
There is also optimism that the launch of Microsoft's Windows 8 operating system and next generation smart phones later this year will further drive semiconductor demand and revenue growth in 2013 beyond, according to the researcher.
The cyclical semiconductor downturn that started in the middle of last year reached bottom in the second quarter of 2012, according to Mali Venkatesan, research manager for Semiconductors at IDC.
"Supply constraints on semiconductor products, such as smartphone applications processors and PC discrete graphics processors based on the most advanced process technologies, are easing as foundries are bringing more capacity online,” Venkatesan said. He added that the semiconductor industry has recovered from the flooding in Thailand that held back the supply of hard drives and PCs.
However, Venkatesan noted that while semiconductor growth is improving, near-term growth will be slower than that of past semiconductor cycles due to macroeconomic weakness.
Regionally, Europe continues to be weak across the board. In the U.S., consumer and automotive markets are showing strong semiconductor demand. Although GDP growth has slowed in China, India, and Brazil, demand for smartphones, tablets, and notebooks remains strong.
IDC expects that semiconductor market growth will resume in the fourth quarter of 2012 and extend into the first quarter of 2013. This next wave of semiconductor demand will be spurred by the launch of Windows 8 for tablets, increased enterprise IT spending, and next-generation smartphones, tablets, and gaming platforms, as well as the anticipation of improved global macroeconomic conditions. The recovery will accelerate into the second half of 2013 and beyond.
The researcher said revenue for the computing industry segment will log a 1.5 percent year-over-year growth for 2012. Within the computing segment, semiconductor revenue for mobile PCs will register 5.9 percent year-over-year growth.
Semiconductor revenue growth for the communications industry will rise 7.2 percent year-over-year in 2012. Semiconductor revenues for 4G phones will experience year-over-year growth of 57.9 percent in 2012.
Semiconductor revenues for the consumer industry segment will record year-over-year growth of 4.4 percent in 2012 and a 2011-2016 CAGR of 5 percent. Media tablets, e-Readers, HD receivers, and LED/LCD TV sets, will continue to see above average growth.
Driven by strong global demand for automobiles and increasing semiconductor content in vehicles semiconductor revenue derived from the automotive industry will grow 9.7 percent year-over-year, according to IDC. Increased semiconductor content in vehicles is growing because of new infotainment systems, automobile body electronics, and driver safety systems, the researcher reported.
Microprocessors, application specific standard products in microcontrollers will post strong revenue growth in 2012. Memory ICs, especially DRAM, will continue to show negative growth as the memory chip industry recovers from last year's DRAM slump.